From 2010 to 2050, the commercial U.S. building stock will change with new construction and demolitions in the existing stock. Floorspace will increase and there will be demand for new services that require energy. As the stock changes, efficient equipment and insulation will be installed in 95% of commercial buildings. For Reinventing Fire, we forecasted what the uptake for efficiency could be in the commercial sector.
Our analysis assumes adoption rates will improve as efficiency goes to scale. From 2030 to 2050, we assume the whole U.S. will adopt efficiency at the rates already achieved in the Pacific Northwest, having meanwhile ramped up to those rates linearly from 2010.
U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2010. Annual Energy Outlook 2010. Washington DC: U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 11. link