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Cost reduction potential of powertrains

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Different powertrains have different cost reduction potential for Revolutionary+ autos. By 2020, for example, battery electric vehicles would be priced about $6,000 above business-as-usual autos as forecasted by the EIA. However, by 2050, this price difference drops to $500 given movement along manufacturing, battery pack, and composite learning curves with increasing volumes. In 2050, plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles carry the greatest price premium due to their inclusion of both a combustion-based engine/generator and a battery pack capable of 40-mile all electric range. Our battery curve assumes a 2015 price of $400/ kWh dropping ultimately to $165/kWh with 193 million packs produced by 2050. Similarly, our fuel cell curve assumes a 2015 price of $200/kWh dropping ultimately to $48/kWh (consistent with longstanding analyses by General Motors) with 193 million units produced by 2050.

Sources

Kromer, Matthew, and John Heywood. 2007. Electric Powertrains: Opportunities and Challenges in the U.S. Light-Duty Vehicle Fleet. LFEE. link

U.S. Energy Information Administration. 2010. Annual Energy Outlook 2010. Washington DC: U.S. Energy Information Administration, May 11. link

Fuchs,E., F. Field, R. Roth, R. Kirchain.2008. “Strategic Materials Selection in the Automobile Body: Economic Opportunities for Polymer Composite Design.” Composites Science and Technology 68 (9):1989–2002.

Warren, Dave. 2010. Low Cost Carbon Fiber Overview. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. link

Boeman, Raymond G., and N. L. Johnson. 2002. Development of a Cost Competitive, Composite Intensive, Body-in-White. Publication 2002-01-1905. Oak Ridge National Laboratory. link