New auto market shares without feebates

Without a feebate (top graphs), no Revolutionary+ vehicles are adopted, since their first three years’ cost of ownership exceeds that of incrementally more efficient "evolutionary" vehicles. With a feebate (bottom graphs), Revolutionary+ vehicles become cost-competitive with evolutionary ones, driving their adoption instead.

 

U.S. motor gasoline consumption with and without policy change and accelerated retooling, 2010–2050

Feebates are necessary for Revolutionary+ autos to be adopted because of their initial price premium. However, even after feebates are adopted and the U.S. begins to move off of oil, speeding EIA’s factory retooling rate by a few years could move U.S. autos completely off of oil by 2050.