U.S. oil combustion: present and projected

The U.S. burns 13 million barrels of oil a day for transportation. Most of this oil powers cars and light trucks. By 2050, the U.S. is expected to burn upwards of 17 million barrels of oil a day for transportation alone.

 

Estimated health effects from U.S. coal-fired power plant emissions

Fossil fuel combustion harms air quality and human health. A 2010 study by the Clean Air Task Force estimated that air pollution from coal-fired power plants accounts for more than 13,000 premature deaths, 20,000 heart attacks, and 1.6 million lost workdays in the U.S. each year. The total monetary cost of these health impacts is over $100 billion annually.

 

Energy flow through a typical internal combustion engine drivetrain

This chart shows why less than 0.5% of the energy in a typical modern auto’s fuel actually moves the driver, and only 5–6% moves the auto. An auto's weight is responsible for more than two-thirds of the energy needed to move it. All told, 86% of the fuel energy never reaches the wheels.

 

U.S. natural gas consumption

In Reinventing Fire, natural gas consumption in 2050 is reduced by 36% relative to business-as-usual. This reduction is primarily enabled by improved efficiency in commercial and residential buildings and less reliance on natural gas in the electricity sector.

 

Power to accelerate 0–60 mph in 9 seconds

Every 10% decrease in an auto’s weight can raise fuel economy by roughly 6%.

 

Technology capital cost projections, 2010-2050

In evaluating the future U.S. electricity system, Rocky Mountain Institute created capital cost projections for fossil and renewable generation technologies through 2050. Many newer technologies, such as concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics, and battery storage, are projected to have rapidly declining capital costs in the next 40 years.

 

Marginal cost of thermal energy delivered, 2010

Cogeneration with natural gas delivers the cheapest heat. With higher fossil fuel costs, heat pumps and solar thermal heat will become increasingly competitive sources of thermal energy.

 

Cost reduction potential of powertrains

Different powertrains have different cost reduction potential for Revolutionary+ autos. By 2020, for example, battery electric vehicles would be priced about $6,000 higher than business-as-usual autos as forecasted by EIA. However, by 2050, this price difference drops to $500 due to learning curves in carbon fiber, structural manufacturing, and battery packs.

 

Heavy truck efficiency supply curve

Better design can save up to 45% of U.S. heavy truck fuel, or 1.7 Mbbl/d in 2050, at a weighted-average cost equivalent to $1.00-per-gallon diesel fuel.

 

Engine idling vs other methods

Line haul trucks waste a great deal of fuel idling their engines overnight to power small “hotel loads” that cool, heat, and power personal electronics within truck cabs. Auxiliary power units reduce this use by two-thirds; electrified parking spaces eliminate it.

 

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