Electricity scenarios

In Reinventing Fire, Rocky Mountain Institute investigates the implications of four radically different future electricity scenarios - from a “business-as-usual” case to a network of intelligent microgrids powered largely by distributed renewables.

 

U.S. price vs. rated efficiency of 250–hp motors

Premium-efficiency motors are normally assumed to cost more because they use more and better copper and iron. Yet analysis of all models on the 2010 U.S. market, in this case for 250 hp (TEFC, NEMA Type B) shows this is untrue despite standards’ having knocked the least efficient models off the market.

 

2050 installed capacity by case

The required generating capacity and its breakdown are very different in each of Rocky Mountain Institute’s four scenarios for the future U.S. electricity system (detailed here).

 

2050 generation by case

Each of Rocky Mountain Institute’s four scenarios for the future U.S. electricity system (detailed here) will have a very different electricity generation mix.

 

Present value cost of the U.S. electricity system

While Rocky Mountain Institute’s four scenarios for the future U.S. electricity system ( detailed here ) have profoundly different resource portfolios, grid structures, environmental impacts, and risk, all the scenarios have very similar overall system costs.

 

Wind and solar photovoltaic capital cost trends, 1976–2010

Renewable energy technologies have historically had higher capital costs than fossil-fueled power plants, but these costs are falling rapidly.

 

U.S. buildings' energy-saving potential, 2010–2050

With significant investments in efficient technologies and smart controls—probably requiring a transformation of the real-estate industry—the U.S. can achieve building energy savings of 38%. With the widespread adoption of integrative design, those savings could potentially rise to 69%. Both figures assume a 70% increase in floorspace by 2050.

 

Strategies for reducing the cost of ground-mounted solar PV

The solar photovoltaics industry has seen remarkable cost reductions over the past 35 years. PV module prices have declined so much that today non-module costs are the majority of total installed cost for utility-scale PV projects. These “balance of system” costs are primed for major reduction through smarter and smaller power electronics, streamlined installation technologies and processes, and project development approaches that leverage low-risk capital and better customer education.

 

Energy inefficiency in a conventional data center

Starting the savings downstream at a typical data center can achieve leverage of 10- or even 100-fold in saved fuel back at the power plant.

 

Average household electricity savings (4-12%) by feedback type

There are small, back-of-mind behavioral shifts that can save large amounts of energy, because consumption varies dramatically between comparable buildings, depending on how their occupants behave. Based on the findings of 36 residential pilot programs, the American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy (ACEEE) has reported that 12% savings are possible for programs with real-time information and feedback.

 

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