U.S. natural gas consumption

In Reinventing Fire, natural gas consumption in 2050 is reduced by 36% relative to business-as-usual. This reduction is primarily enabled by improved efficiency in commercial and residential buildings and less reliance on natural gas in the electricity sector.

 

Electricity scenarios

In Reinventing Fire, Rocky Mountain Institute investigates the implications of four radically different future electricity scenarios - from a “business-as-usual” case to a network of intelligent microgrids powered largely by distributed renewables.

 

Reinventing Fire U.S. energy consumption, 2050

In 2050, Reinventing Fire envisions an economy that uses 71 quadrillion BTUs of primary energy—70% of that energy is supplied by wind, solar and biomass.

 

2050 generation by case

Each of Rocky Mountain Institute’s four scenarios for the future U.S. electricity system (detailed here) will have a very different electricity generation mix.

 

Technology capital cost projections, 2010-2050

In evaluating the future U.S. electricity system, Rocky Mountain Institute created capital cost projections for fossil and renewable generation technologies through 2050. Many newer technologies, such as concentrated solar power, solar photovoltaics, and battery storage, are projected to have rapidly declining capital costs in the next 40 years.

 

Wind and solar photovoltaic capital cost trends, 1976–2010

Renewable energy technologies have historically had higher capital costs than fossil-fueled power plants, but these costs are falling rapidly.

 

Strategies for reducing the cost of ground-mounted solar PV

The solar photovoltaics industry has seen remarkable cost reductions over the past 35 years. PV module prices have declined so much that today non-module costs are the majority of total installed cost for utility-scale PV projects. These “balance of system” costs are primed for major reduction through smarter and smaller power electronics, streamlined installation technologies and processes, and project development approaches that leverage low-risk capital and better customer education.

 

Overnight capital cost for U.S. pressurized-water reactors

Unlike solar and windpower, which have had orders-of-magnitude reduction in cost as experience and manufacturing have scaled, the cost of building a nuclear reactor has increased over time. A reactor ordered today is 5–8 times more expensive per watt of capacity than a reactor built in the 1970s.

 

Solar thermal competitiveness with 2009 U.S. industrial natural gas prices

Solar thermal heating can deliver some of the process heating requirements for industry.

Given the high volatility of natural gas prices, pricing for solar thermal projects on a lifecycle cost of heat basis can be competitive with natural gas.

 

Marginal cost of thermal energy delivered, 2010

Cogeneration with natural gas delivers the cheapest heat. With higher fossil fuel costs, heat pumps and solar thermal heat will become increasingly competitive sources of thermal energy.

 

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