The economics of a US civilian nuclear phase-out

In the United States, which trades three-fifths of its electricity in competitive markets, the prohibitive capital cost of new nuclear power plants ensures that only a handful will be built. Nonetheless, with 40-year licenses being extended to 60 years, the 104 existing reactors’ relatively low generating costs are widely expected to justify decades of continued operation. But the generating costs of aging reactors have been rising, while competitors, including modern renewables, show rapidly falling total costs—and those opposed cost curves have begun to intersect. An expanding fraction of well-running nuclear plants is now challenged to compete with moderating wholesale power prices, while plants needing major repairs or located in regions rich in wind power increasingly face difficult choices of whether to run or close. Thus, even without events that might accelerate nuclear phase-out, as the Fukushima disaster did in Germany, shifting competitive conditions have begun to drive a gradual US nuclear phase-out. Its economics are illuminated by a detailed energy scenario that needs no nuclear energy, coal, or oil and one-third less natural gas to run a 158 percent bigger US economy in 2050—but cuts carbon emissions by 82 to 86 percent and costs $5 trillion less. That scenario’s 80-percent-renewable, 50-percent-distributed, equally reliable, and more resilient electricity system would cost essentially the same as a business-as-usual version that sustains nuclear and coal power, but it would better manage all the system’s risks. Similarly comprehensive modeling could also analyze faster nuclear phase-out if desired.

 

Fort Collins Fort Zed Final Report

Fort Collins Utilities has been working to meet its clean energy goals including a flagship effort, called FortZED, to build a net zero energy district in downtown Fort Collins. Fort Collins Utilities and its partners worked with the Electricity Innovation Lab (e-Lab) to design and carry-out a two-day charrette on November 7th and 8th, 2012. The charrette team identified innovative solutions to some of Fort Collins’ most difficult challenges around planning, investment, and execution of efficiency and renewable energy.

 

Reinventing Fire in Southern California: Distributed Resources and the San Onofre Outage

The prolonged shut-down of the San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station (SONGS) in Southern California could mark an important turning point for the region’s electricity system. Distributed and demand-side resources offer a portfolio of solutions to help fill the near-term supply gap, while also advancing California’s long-term goals of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and supporting local economic development and job creation. This discussion paper assesses the role the following distributed energy resources could play in the absence of SONGS: behavioral savings; demand response; energy efficiency; solar photovoltaics; combined heat and power and fuel cells; storage. That paper includes information on what the potentials for these resources are, how their economics affect adoption, how much time it takes to install them, and how long we expect them to persist. We also offer recommendations to unlock these resources and encourage their adoption by utilities and their customers.

 

Net Energy Metering, Zero Net Energy, and the Distributed Energy Resource Future

On behalf of PG&E, Rocky Mountain Institute organized and facilitated a roundtable of experts to evaluate the potential implications for the utility and its customers of a future business environment characterized by high levels of customer energy efficiency, growing numbers of Zero Net Energy buildings, and increased adoption of distributed generation (largely solar PV) by utility customers. The political and policy environment surrounding distributed resources is highly charged, with strongly held beliefs and assumptions about distributed generation benefits and impediments to customer adoption. At the same time, there are myriad complexities in analyzing the costs and benefits to the utility system of installing these technologies. Costs and benefits will shift over time as markets evolve, penetration rates increase, and new technologies are deployed. The roundtable worked to build a shared understanding of the problems and challenges facing stakeholders in the electric system and to identify the essential characteristics of workable long-term solutions.

 

Developing Solar Friendly Communities: Permitting, Interconnection, and Net Metering: An Overview of Model Standards and Policy Design Criteria

Over the past several years, procedures and policies surrounding permitting, inspection, interconnection, and net metering of distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems have been the subject of extensive analysis and scrutiny, given their substantial contribution to solar costs. This ongoing period of critical analysis has produced a wide variety of process innovations and model standards capable of streamlining processes for local governments and reducing solar PV costs. As a member of the Colorado-based “Solar Friendly Communities” team under the Rooftop Solar Challenge, Rocky Mountain Institute (RMI) has evaluated a number of these standards, innovations, and policy design criteria and developed some specific recommendations. This document surveys a subset of existing permitting, interconnection, and net metering processes and is meant to serve as an initial point of inquiry for interested local governments and communities.

 

Sustainable Zero Net Energy: Identifying the Essentials for Solutions

This paper explores the challenges and opportunities available for the electricity and buildings industries as the adoption of distributed generation, energy efficiency, and zero net energy designs grow.

 

Reinventing Fire Electricity Sector Methodology

This document provides RMI's methodology for the analysis of the electricity sector in Reinventing Fire.

 

Soft Energy Paths for the 21st Century

Japan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs asked Amory Lovins to outline his reaction to the Fukushima disaster and his suggestions for Japanese and U.S. energy policy for its house magazine Gaiko (Diplomacy). An abridged version was published 30 July 2011 in Japanese and is cited in this unabridged English version. It's a timely contribution to the rapidly growing movement in Japan to accelerate the strategic shift from nuclear power to efficiency and renewables, as Germany is already doing—an approach consistent with sound economics and with RMI's U.S. findings in Reinventing Fire. The abridged version of the article is available at http://www.gaiko-web.jp/ in Japanese.

 

Renewable Energy's "Footprint" Myth

Many nuclear advocates argue that renewable electricity has far too big a land ‘footprint’ to be environmentally acceptable, while nuclear power is preferable because it uses orders of magnitude less land. If we assume that land-use is an important metric, a closer look reveals the opposite is true.

 

Response to RADM Robert G. James (USNR Ret.)'s 2 August 2011 Wall Street Journal op-ed "Of Mustard Fuel and Marines"

Former Naval and CIA officer and oil-industry executive Robert James claimed that military interest in advanced biofuels is a green fad and compromises combat effectiveness. Amory Lovins, who's helped to lead military energy reform for three decades, corrects Dr. James's misconceptions and misrepresentations in this comment posted on 3 August 2011 to his op-ed.

 

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