VP, RMI's MOVE Transportation Innovation Group
move.rmi.org
We’re never going to see gas at $1.15-a-gallon again, and oil isn’t likely to stay near $115 a barrel for much longer, either.
Even with a short-term dip in price, a few hard truths remain unchanged: Oil is a declining, non-sustainable resource that is cooking the planet. If we hope to continue our standard of living, we’re going to have to find a more climate-friendly way to power our cars. And homegrown power is less vulnerable to disruption.
So while oil prices dance up and down over the short term – and increasingly up and up over the long term -- it’s important to keep our eye on the ball. In recent months, people have been using mass transit at record levels. Those still driving have been more thoughtful about how, where and when they drive, resulting in a 3-4 percent decrease in our gasoline consumption. And those still buying cars are shifting rapidly away from trucks and back to more fuel-efficient cars, with sales of SUVs falling 25 percent already. As a result, the average gas mileage of a new American vehicle is now at its highest since 1984.
It’s important that we continue down this path and not backslide.
Shifts in consumer behavior directly impact the auto industry, of course. Major automakers from GM to Toyota are responding by promising mass-produced “plug-in hybrids” or “dual-fueled” vehicles that could be in your driveway by 2010, and offer up to 40 miles of pure electric driving before a normal 300+ mile gasoline range kicks in if needed. That means up to 70 percent of commuters -- those who drive less than 40 miles a day -- would practically never have to fill up their gas tank.
For drivers of plug-in hybrids, stopping at the gas station for a Big Gulp would mean just getting a soda—not the “Big Gulp” of spending $60 to $100 to fill up a large gas tank as so many are today.
The jump in clean-tech investment dollars has meant faster progress on battery and energy storage solutions. Tesla Motors began delivering their all-electric Roadster sports car this year, and has plans to create a higher-volume midsized sedan in the next few years. Project Better Place is creating an all-electric-vehicle infrastructure for Israel and Denmark, aiming to upgrade consumers’ electric vehicles the same way we now trade up on cell phones. Aptera is creating entirely new vehicle categories with its lightweight, hybrid-electric Typ-1 car that promises the same mobility at a fraction of the energy cost.
We’re importing more cars that we have to and more oil than we should. The next thing to do is to create a new domestic supply of clean transportation.
Honda and Toyota are presently bigger in the U.S. than Chrysler, Ford and GM put together. Our car manufacturers now realize that their portfolio of cars isn’t competitive, and wasn’t even in the low-oil-price era.
America’s preeminent natural resource – innovation -- can deliver us cars that don’t run on oil at all, revitalizing our economy and addressing our oil dependence, energy security and the climate threat all at once.
Electric utilities are starting to embrace the shift and consider how they could become the leading fuel supplier for Americans’ transportation in the future.
We were just starting to learn some vitally important lessons from $130-a-barrel oil. Let’s not forget them just because of a dip to $115. Too much is at stake to let oil back into the game.
